Forest carbon accounting is essential, but it cannot by itself protect forests from severe wildfire. Large fires can rapidly release substantial amounts of carbon, while recovery may take years or decades. Earlier wildfire detection and faster response can improve the opportunity to contain fires before they grow, helping reduce avoidable carbon losses.
Australia continues to debate how native forests should be treated within the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) Scheme.
The Australian Government made the Improved Native Forest Management in Multiple-use Public Native Forests Method, known as the INFM Method, on 25 June 2026. The Method allows eligible projects to generate carbon abatement by permanently stopping timber harvesting in multiple-use public native forests.
Forestry Australia has since raised concerns about the Method’s 15-year accounting period, FullCAM modelling assumptions and treatment of leakage. It argues that these issues could result in carbon abatement being overstated.
The Emissions Reduction Assurance Committee reached a different conclusion. Following public consultation and amendments to the draft Method, ERAC advised the Australian Government that the Method was suitable to be made and that it met the Offset Integrity Standards.
The technical merits of that debate are for forest carbon specialists and regulators to resolve.
However, the discussion raises a broader question that matters regardless of how forest carbon is measured or credited.
How do we protect the carbon already stored in Australia’s forests?
Isn’t protecting forest carbon just as important as measuring it?
Forests absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store carbon in living vegetation, dead organic matter and soils.
Considerable effort is invested in understanding and estimating these carbon stocks. Scientists model forest growth. Governments develop accounting methods. Carbon markets assign financial value to eligible emissions reductions and carbon sequestration.
But forest carbon is not static.
Disturbances such as wildfire can cause substantial carbon losses, while subsequent forest recovery can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere again. Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts therefore account for both emissions from bushfires and the carbon subsequently absorbed during post-fire recovery.
Protecting forest carbon is therefore not only about determining how much carbon a forest contains.
It is also about understanding and managing the risks that can change those carbon stocks over time.
What happens to forest carbon during a severe wildfire?
Wildfires are a natural part of many Australian ecosystems. Many Australian tree species are adapted to fire, and many eucalypt forests can reabsorb substantial amounts of carbon as they recover. That does not mean severe wildfires are insignificant from a carbon perspective.
Large fires can release substantial quantities of carbon over a relatively short period.
The 2019–20 Black Summer provides an indication of the scale involved. An Australian Government technical assessment made a preliminary estimate of around 830 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from fires affecting Australia’s temperate forests during that season. The same assessment estimated that the fires consumed, on average, around 20 per cent of above-ground biomass and debris in the affected forests.
Importantly, this does not mean all of the carbon stored in a forest disappears when it burns.
Carbon remains in surviving vegetation, dead biomass, soils and other pools. Recovering forests can also absorb carbon dioxide again over many years. The Australian Government notes that, in the absence of further disturbance, Australia’s eucalypt forests generally reabsorb carbon as they recover following fire.
The long-term outcome depends on factors including forest type, fire severity, climate and whether the forest experiences further disturbance.
Repeated severe fires at short intervals can be particularly damaging in some forest types. Research into temperate eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia has found that recurrent wildfire can threaten regeneration in fire-sensitive forests and may also cause structural changes in more fire-tolerant forests.
This makes wildfire an important part of any serious discussion about maintaining forest carbon over time.
We have explored the relationship between wildfire, forest carbon and emissions in more detail in our article, Wildfires Are Destroying the Carbon Budget.
Does forest management alone protect forest carbon?
Forest management plays an important role in maintaining healthy and resilient forests.
Australia will continue to have complex discussions about conservation, biodiversity, timber production, cultural values, fire management and carbon storage.
These discussions matter, but no single forest management strategy can eliminate the risk that severe wildfire will reduce forest carbon stocks.
Protecting forests therefore involves more than deciding how carbon should be accounted for or how land should be managed.
It also requires managing wildfire risk and improving the opportunity to contain unwanted fires before they become large.
Why does early wildfire detection matter for forest carbon?
Earlier wildfire detection does not guarantee containment.
Weather, fuel conditions, terrain, fire behaviour and the availability of suppression resources all affect whether a fire can be controlled.
However, evidence shows that time matters.
A study examining approximately 12,000 forest-fire incidents in Victoria found that response time and fire size at first attack were among the key factors influencing whether fires were successfully contained within the first 24 hours. The researchers concluded that reducing the time between ignition and the arrival of first responders allows suppression to begin before a fire grows beyond the capability of available resources to construct a control line.
This is why early detection matters.
Detecting an ignition sooner can shorten the time between the start of a fire and operational awareness. If that leads to faster verification, dispatch and initial attack, responders may have an opportunity to act while the fire is still smaller.
That opportunity cannot be guaranteed. Under extreme conditions, some fires can grow rapidly despite early detection and substantial firefighting resources.
But once time has been lost, it cannot be recovered.
From a carbon perspective, the connection is therefore indirect but important. Where earlier detection and response contribute to containing a fire before it becomes large, the area burned and associated carbon losses may be lower than they otherwise would have been.
Want to explore the numbers in more detail? Our white paper, Reducing Carbon Emissions: AI Wildfire Detection within Minutes, examines wildfire carbon emissions, fire growth and the potential emissions implications of earlier detection using scientific research and modelling.
Why does operational intelligence matter after a wildfire is detected?
Detecting smoke is only the beginning of the operational process.
Once a potential wildfire has been identified, operators need to establish where it is, verify what they are seeing, understand the surrounding conditions and determine what action may be required.
Where exactly is the fire? How is it developing? What assets or areas may be exposed? What are the current weather conditions? What information will help responders understand the situation?
This is where operational wildfire intelligence becomes important.
At exci, our work in AI wildfire detection has shown that early detection has greater operational value when organisations can quickly verify a potential fire and understand the situation around it.
exci combines AI wildfire detection with live camera imagery, mapping, weather information and relevant operational data to support situational awareness and faster decision-making. Human verification is also part of the detection process before customers are notified of a confirmed fire.
The objective is not simply to generate an alert.
It is to help operators move from detection to verification and informed decision-making as quickly as practicable.
This distinction matters because an early detection only creates operational value if people can understand it and act on it.
Can technology eliminate wildfire risk?
No wildfire detection system can prevent every ignition, guarantee containment or stop every large wildfire.
Weather, fuel conditions, terrain, accessibility and firefighting resources all influence the outcome of an incident. Technology should therefore be viewed as one component of a broader wildfire management strategy.
Effective wildfire management also depends on land and fuel management, preparedness, trained firefighters, appropriate suppression resources, communications, community resilience and long-term forest stewardship.
Early detection contributes something specific to that system.
It can provide more time.
Why should forest carbon strategies include wildfire risk?
Accurate carbon accounting matters.
High-integrity carbon markets matter.
Transparent and scientifically defensible methods matter.
But protecting forest carbon also requires accounting for the risk of wildfire.
Forestry Australia itself raised this issue during consultation on the INFM Method. In its January 2026 submission to ERAC, it argued that bushfire is a major driver of carbon stock change in Australia’s native forests and that fire frequency and severity can affect both carbon outcomes and the durability of credited abatement. Australia’s national greenhouse accounting also recognises this relationship by accounting for both carbon released through bushfire and carbon subsequently absorbed through forest recovery.
The implications extend beyond carbon accounting.
Whether forests are managed for conservation, biodiversity, timber production, recreation, cultural values or carbon sequestration, severe wildfire can affect the environmental and economic values those forests provide.
Reducing the chance that an unwanted ignition develops into a large wildfire should therefore be considered alongside the way forest carbon is measured, managed and valued.
Frequently asked questions
Does early wildfire detection reduce carbon emissions?
It can, when earlier detection contributes to faster containment and a smaller final fire. Early detection does not itself extinguish a fire or guarantee containment. However, detecting a fire earlier can shorten the time between ignition, verification and response. Where this helps contain a fire sooner, a smaller area may burn and associated carbon losses may be lower.
Are forest carbon credits enough to protect forests?
No. Carbon accounting and carbon credit schemes can create mechanisms for recognising and valuing eligible emissions reductions or sequestration. They do not physically protect a forest from wildfire.
Maintaining forest carbon over the long term also requires consideration of disturbance risks, including wildfire, and the capacity to detect, respond to and manage fires when they occur.
Conclusion
Australia is rightly investing considerable effort in understanding how forests contribute to climate change mitigation. Accounting for forest carbon is essential. So is maintaining confidence in the integrity of carbon markets.
But measuring carbon is only part of the challenge.
Forests are dynamic systems. Carbon can accumulate over decades, be released during disturbance and be absorbed again during recovery.
Wildfire is therefore part of the forest carbon equation.
This is becoming particularly important as Australia’s fire environment changes. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season have increased across large parts of Australia since the 1950s.
Carbon accounting tells us how carbon stocks change.
Forest management influences how forests develop and respond to disturbance.
Early wildfire detection and operational intelligence serve a different purpose. They can improve the opportunity to identify and respond to unwanted fires before they become larger and more difficult to contain.
This is the role exci focuses on: helping organisations detect wildfires earlier, verify what is happening and give operators the information they need to respond with greater situational awareness.
If forest carbon is valuable, protecting it from avoidable loss deserves attention alongside measuring it.
by Gabrielle Tylor
exci – Early AI Bushfire & Wildfire Detection in minutes
18 August 2026